Greek 10year yields also fell 7 points to 5

The Germany will now open ball of emission of State bonds in the euro area, inaugurating a year ahead even more loaded than 2009. In total, the market will have to absorb nearly 1,000 billion euros of paper. The Agency in charge of the German, debt exceeding EUR 200 billion, the annual program begins the first, with a lift of titles EUR 6 billion to 10 years. The next day, the France will proceed to the award of four lines bond, for a total amount between 7.5 and 9 billion euros. It will issue shares at 9, 10, 15 and 30 years. In 2010, the French programme is EUR 188 billion.

Pending these two appointments for the week, the euro area bond market held good. Yesterday, the German 10-year rate is relaxed 3 basis points, to 3.35, while the 10 French years conceded 1 basis point to 3.58. The rate move in the opposite direction of the price of the securities. Greek 10-year yields also fell 7 points to 5.63.

As always, the influx of State bonds will be particularly so in the first months of the year. In January, a little less than 100 billion euros are expected in crude, but repayments of maturing securities and coupon payments will be higher, so the net emissions will be near zero. In other words, the liquidity in the market will help cushion the new debt fundraising. "On this test, the holders of bonds Spanish, Austrian, Dutch, French and German will be the most advantaged", note the ING team. On the other hand, net emissions will be more important to the Ireland, the Greece, the Belgium and the Italy. "These four countries are also likely to launch new bond references via a bank syndication", continuing the analysts.

For the Greece private placement

The Greece reluctant even to make a private placement with the banks, instead of using them to place their titles through a syndication. The first solution involves less risk for the Government, opposite an offer open to a large number of investors. "It is possible that we options for private placement" "it will depend of the reception by the European Commission and our program of stability and growth markets," said the boss of the Agency in charge of Greek debt, interviewed by Bloomberg. The Greece, of which the mark has been damaged last year by the rating agencies, has had recourse to this procedure in December, to raise 2 billion euros. In 2010, the country plans to issue 50 billion less than last year.

Investors do not believe in a black scenario for the bond of the euro area this year. Managers of Pimco, one of the largest Fund bond world, are slightly positive. They recognize that "the euro area has been deeply reluctant to engage in aggressive Keynesian policies" and believe that it "will not face the problem of reduction of large-scale purchases of titles by the central banks in 2010". The United States and the United Kingdom, on which Pimco calls for caution. One of the managers said that the note of the United Kingdom has 80 likely to be degraded if the public deficit reduction plan. has not improved. BNP Paribas, the first half should be favourable to the obligations. The main rate (Germany, France) could decline to 3. BNP evokes the doubts about the strength of economic recovery, the low probability of inflation will return in sights soon, the abundance of liquidity which should take yet some time, the new prudential rules forcing banks to State bonds. On his side, Groupama Asset Management considers that the rate of the French OAT to 10 years will evolve around 3.6 at the end of the first quarter and will rise to 4 at year end.