500 points threshold crossed the previous day

End of the year in band on the markets. Great Western squares were completed on their most senior of the year or a few cables from their record of 2006. The DJ Stoxx 600 has advanced a modest 0.04, but has registered an annual Summit, to 366,32 points, its levels in late 2000. Dow Jones, who has also posted an earlier meeting, to 12.529,88 points, lost 0.07 yesterday at the end, saving, to 12.501,52 points, historic 12.500 points threshold crossed the previous day.

Western scholarship took yesterday the publication of a series of statistics in the United States. The Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 109 points, while economists were waiting for 102 points. The figure for November, moreover, was revised to 102.9 to 105.3 points higher. At the same time, the index of activity in the industrial sector of the Chicago area, prepared by the Group of Directors of purchases in the region, has advanced to 52.4 points in December. Analysts anticipated lower growth at 50 points, after previously 49.9. Finally, sales of housing progressed 6,28 million units in November, after 6.24 million in October. The consensus was, here also, on a lower number (6.19 million units).

This good news on the housing resales, which comes in the wake of the good surprise on sales of new homes, reassures the good health of Uncle Sam and provides new perspectives on the evolution of us monetary policy. These statistics argue instead for an extension of the status quo: indeed, futures suggested yesterday afternoon that operators are betting to 11 on a decline in the rate in March, against 23 the day before.

The dollar yesterday took these data, which have managed to cause a reversal of trend in favour of the greenback. The first part of yesterday had, indeed, been favourable to the euro. The single currency had managed to pull themselves up to 1,3201 dollar in early afternoon and renew his record against the yen, in 156,73, following the remarks of the President of the Central Bank of the Luxembourg. "The dynamism of growth and the magnitude of liquidity increase the risk of inflation," said Yves Mersch. What feed expectations of further increases in the rate of the ECB in 2007. Later in the day, the euro was worth more than 1,3162 dollar and the dollar was quoted at 118,90 yen.

Upward trend since the summer

The meeting of yesterday in any case illustrates the importance have taken real estate data in recent months. Fears of a more marked slowdown than expected and its impact on us growth came periodically haunt investors. They gave rise to point decreases in an overall upward trend since the end of the summer on both sides of the Atlantic.

In the end, since the beginning of 2006, major European indices clearly exceeded the hopes of makers. They have recorded in local currency, with increases ranging from 11 (Futsee 100, in London) and about 32 (for the Ibex 35, Madrid). In particular, the French CAC 40 won 17.35 after 23.40 in 2005. It will thus sign its fourth year of increase in a row. Similarly, in the United States, the Dow Jones took some 17 and the Nasdaq 10.

Beyond the data in the sense of a landing soft US economy, the stock markets have benefited from a combination of favourable factors. With, first, solid profits: the rate of earnings growth is expected for 2006 around 13.3 for the DJ Stoxx 600 (against consensus to 8.9 in April) and 14.8 for the S & P 500 (1). The places were, moreover, supported by a record volume of mergers and acquisitions with approximately 3.600 billion in transactions announced in the world (including 1.363 billion in Europe), according to preliminary data from Thomson Financial.

So far, all sectors have not benefited the optimism of investors. The winners of the vintage were telecommunications, the United States, and financial services, in Europe, based on the Dow Jones indices. The pharmacy, on the other hand, was the "flop" of 2006 on both sides of the Atlantic.