Change behaviour and organizations will take time

Fact pensions reform fear youth that the delayed departure of the senior them close more doors of employment. Is this fear justified

In the long term, this pension reform profoundly not young people access to employment. However, it will participate in a rise in unemployment of young people and seniors over the next years. Concerning young people, the difficulty comes not from the private sector but the public: the three public duties, which represent one-fifth of the employment in France, recruitments are mainly to replace of retirements. It is a closed market which is that anyone who does not share prevents a person from returning. The fact that a senior is two years older and should decrease by 20 the recruitment of agents in the next 10 years. It is of the order of 30,000 positions less per year for ten years. This may seem little in absolute terms, but it will be very focused on a single class of age. It is therefore an important outlet for young people to seize even more up.

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And concerning the employment of senior citizens

It is, this time in the private sector that the risk is significant. If back the age of departure for an official results effectively by a senior maintained employment, mechanics is more complex in the private sector. Too many companies have taken to separate early employees, sometimes as early as age 55. For many years, public policies have multiplied devices of retirement in the idea of make way for young people. The culture of the early departure is now firmly anchored both entrepreneurs as employees. Change behaviour and organizations will take time. Companies will have deeply revisit their human resource management and training programs: until now, they invested on an employee more than 45 years. It is therefore likely that companies continue to hire young people without so maintaining the employment of the elderly for some time.

Why are you optimistic in the longer term

A short term, the question of the sharing of work arise whenever we go out of a deep economic crisis. If unemployment has made little progress in Germany during this crisis, it is because there was reduction of working time arrangements to prevent dismissals. But in the long term, this Malthusian idea is that the labour market is a cake is shared does not. Of work, for example, showed that a wave of immigration strengthened competition on the market of labour for older immigrants, but clearly term creator of wealth. Similarly, when a senior works, it creates activity. On the French case, the current reform extends until 2023. In the public service, to this date, the transition will be completed and pace departures - and therefore of hirings - resume. Private sector, there is hope that companies will be then reviewed the management of their human resources and ability to maintain the seniors in employment will be.

What solution would you desired

The current reform project is very fast and will not smooth in time the shock created on the labour market. There will be an impact on the employment during the first decade. A greater escalation is one of the claims of the CFDT. The same debates are in Great Britain with the Cameron reform. For men, the age of the full rate for the State pension will be raised from 65 to 66 years in 2020 and 67 years in the years 2030. This phase-in will leave time to structures adapt to "male" professions But for women, age of liquidation will be quickly brought from 60 to 66 years by 2020, which fear a huge impact on women's employment.