Angela Merkel has come to say that this road is closed

Angela Merkel said on March 17, 2010 before the German Parliament was favour other than a country of the euro "If the budget conditions are not met repeatedly over the long term."

The Germany spoke. The masks have fallen. The French illusions are dead. To succeed the euro, it had to reject any "opting" clause out, forcing the country to choose between being in the EU or outside. They also had to implement an economic government of the euro area, not in the sense of M Merkel, that is a harder version of the stability and Growth Pact, but lay the groundwork for an optimal driving of the "policy mix", i.e. implementation consistency of monetary, fiscal policy and the Exchange, which should have been a real Eurogroup mission. He was also a fiscal federalism, that is a mechanism for automatic transfer of resources between States low and strong Union through a large federal budget. Need still ban social and fiscal competition which is the only real engine of this Union. A Union which is now intrinsically anti-political, because based on the competition by the standards and the selection of the best and the exclusion of the weak.

Angela Merkel has come to say that this road is closed. At a minimum, in the absence of the previous conditions, should avoid that Member States conduct macroeconomic policies, contrary to the common interest. Because the German policy is, for ten years, non-cooperative focusing pay disinflation that, not only him allows to export more to the other countries of the Union, that covers the concept, but prohibits other export in Germany in the absence of domestic demand in that country, which is suicidal for the Union but for the Germany.

Last illusion, the Union European must be inclusive, i.e. to promote a convergence of economic and social member countries performance. However, the reality is opposite. Thus, the euro is no longer a political beginning but an economic, or even accounting, end with trustee in bankruptcy on the lookout. What can you imagine The euro area explodes into sixteen parts, with a return to competitive devaluations, if any European construction which is at risk. But stay in the State can only accentuate differences and resentment. In reality, there are two areas euro. One that is focused on the production and export, with of current high surpluses, consisting of the Germany, the Netherlands, the Austria and, to a lesser extent, of the Belgium. The other, which is focused on consumption, with deficits of current account such as France and Italy, or significant as in Spain, the Portugal and Greece.

It is thus economically justified to consider the partition of the euro area: one focused on the first group of countries and the other on the second. This requires the establishment of a second BCE, for example in Paris, which is no technical problem. For simplicity, the first euro would be a euromark and the second a eurofranc. Public debt would be denominated in euromark or eurofranc Two solutions are possible: either the States of the zone eurofranc would pay a premium, to only non-resident holders of public debt, all debts and claims between residents being recorded at the nominal value in eurofranc; either all debts and claims would be in eurofrancs, since the existence of a market is evidence that each creditor has knowledge of risks differentiated in the area.

The second problem relates to a possible weakening of the Franco-German axis: in addition to it goes wrong with a single euro, he would then improve, because this axis would coordinate the two areas and would become more than ever central in the construction of Europe. The benefits of a possible devaluation would be fully used to greatly reduce budget deficits in the eurofranc area.

This realistic solution will not be in place cold, but it must have in mind when comes the final crisis. As soon the cooperative solution with two euros will appear infinitely preferable to the war between 16 euros.