By comparison the S P 500 won only 13 approximately

The downward trend of the greenback in recent months leaves quite indifferent equity markets. The rebound of the dollar explains in part - but in part only-l' erosion of Wall Street yesterday, all early in the session. Theoretically, a decline of the US dollar is favorable to American exporters and by extension to the market. A 10 depreciation of the dollar gives 0.5 point for additional growth in the country, "which is not negligible!", says Roland Kaloyan, strategist at Société Générale.

More generally, a low dollar - considered as a safe haven - is associated with a renewed appetite for risk, positive for risky assets, and therefore the actions in General. Since 2008, the markets have tended to rise during periods of low dollar, show Citigroup analysts, even if they are a reminder that correlation is not stable in time.

However, all geographical zones benefit the same way to this effect changes. The major beneficiaries of the decline of the dollar are the emerging. For two main reasons: the strong weighting of the indices in raw materials (with a low dollar) and flows in dedicated funds. "Investors play the strengthening of emerging currencies by investing in shares and bonds," he said.

"Theme of concern".

On the other hand, the impact on Europe are much more mixed. An appreciation of the euro must have a negative impact on the export shares of the Continent and weigh on the stock exchanges. A decrease of 10 of the dollar "costs" 0.2 of a point of GDP. "P our euro rising from 10, the Euro Stoxx should perform under of 3.5 S & P 500, according to our calculations over the last ten years", said Pierre Sabatier, strategist at PrimeView.

However, the recent appreciation of the single currency did not prevent the stock market to rise. Since its low of June (in 1,1952 dollar), the euro rose by 16, while the European wide index, Stoxx 600 rose by almost 10 (in euros) and 27 (in dollars). By comparison, the & S P 500 won "only" 13, approximately.

"W all Street is the Director market: its rise has been so far a positive effect on European actions.". But investors are beginning to wonder about the negative effect of the euro for Europe's competitiveness. "They are beginning to worry in their sectoral choices, and this could be more important," says Pierre Sabatier.

"The European market is generally less sensitive that in the past to the currency effects, the fact of the covers of business exchange, adds Roland Kaloyan.". T however, the rise of the euro will become a topic of concern to investors if it exceeds 1.50 dollar quickly, which corresponds to the threshold by the swaps market.

A variable impact

The impact of the changes, however, is not at all uniform in Europe: it varies, there also, strongly depending on countries and sectors. The Dutch stock market is suffering more than the weak dollar, while on the other hand, the Spanish market benefits, based on the calculations of Société Générale.

On the front of the sectors, the more exporters are quite logically more penalized. A decrease of 10 of the dollar has a negative impact of 6 on the profits of energy (excluding coverage of Exchange), of 5.5 on those of the chemistry of 5.3 in the luxury and 3.8 in capital equipment. Figures corroborated by Aurel study, showing that the performance of the oil, raw materials (including Chemistry) and industry in Europe appear statistically the highest sensitivities (excluding financial values) with the currency movements.