At the one of the newspapers there is for them

Surveys in opinion polls, the duel moved: Sarkozy against Royal; Royal against Sarkozy. At the one of the newspapers, there is for them. These two middle-aged dwarf all others. They are installed so that neither candidates nor the other is invested. They already seem to have crossed the bar of the first round while the number and profile of the candidates who applied in April 2007 are even not known. Then, we wondered: illusion loving or substantive desire A presidential election year, the answer is necessarily conservative because history is full of lost illusions: twelve months before the vote, Raymond bar (1988), Edouard Balladur (1995) and Lionel Jospin (2002) were the head race. They have however failed to qualify for the second round. And what about some duels desired by the French Jacques Delors against Edouard Balladur for example and which never took place. "Everything is played in the last three months", say experts. If Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal necessary yet today with equal force, is not a coincidence.

First, age: 51 years for Nicolas Sarkozy, 52 years for Ségolène Royal. An effect of rejuvenation of politics which, after the double mandate Chirac supporter, corresponds well to the air of the time. By comparison, Laurent Fabius (59 years) would almost to an old. And what about Lionel Jospin (68 years) Then, the novelty. Indeed, neither one nor the other are novices: Nicolas Sarkozy entered politics in 1977, Ségolène Royal in 1982, both have been (or are still) Minister but the first was able to build a new discourse based on the break with the chiraquisme and the latter embodies, because she is a woman, a promise of change. This hope of a different tomorrow is a powerful antidote to the ambient déclinisme.

The one and the other also have the particularity of not exactly be like the others: Nicolas Sarkozy is party leader, he has built his image on the opposition to the establishment: it is the little that was intended to crush and climbed to the Summit to the only strength of the wrist. Full challenge of the elites, the message please. His way, Ségolène Royal was, also, a marginal: she is into the Socialist Party, although it has based his political path on participatory democracy, in other words the truth came to at the bottom. "Every citizen is an expert in what he said" as opposed to come at the top now so discredited.

Another common point: the values. In his last speech, Nicolas Sarkozy calls for "fair reform", in "the rupture that leads to new security". In its intervention of Privas, Segolene Royal speaks "just order" and "sustainable security". Disturbing similarity that translates a same intuition: in a world in full upheaval that carries a maximum of insecurities, the application of benchmarks seldom was also strong. 2007 may well bury once and for all the libertarian spirit of May 1968. The right and left, Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal are those who best understood: they praise, without complex, traditional values: work, family, discipline, security while avoiding locking on the subjects of society, in a speech too reactionary. "We must be responsive to all differences", said for example Nicolas Sarkozy in remembering that when the left had adopted the pacs, the right had given "printing to refuse a considered as inevitable evolution by number of young people".

The corollary of this approach is that both comb beyond their respective camp: for four years, Nicolas Sarkozy has, whenever it was, adopted a binary system to give committed to the right and issue signals to the left: in 2002, it hardens the fight against illegal immigration but removes double punishment. Today, he still climbs a notch in the anti-immigration speech but Polish his social discourse, because he knows that in this field, the fear of change dominates. "At this time, the French want the left and the State and demand is very high," says Gaël Sliman, Deputy Director of BVA views. Ségolène Royal, she also is dual: fiercely on the left when it accuses the right "to fragment and reassures the work", completely at the forefront in the fight against the CPE. But, at the same time, close to the centrist when it promotes "the compelling vision of Tony Blair", calls to look at the complexity of the world as it"and said"Yes"without reservation to the referendum on Europe. In polls, it succeeds the tour de force to be attractive both for the centre and the extreme left. There is a phenomenon Royal as a Sarkozy phenomenon.

There is a weakness common to these two profiles: If one and the other knows very well speak the language of the French, their international vision is much less asserted. What project do What role they assign to the France, with what means, by relying on what allies It is curious that an election of this nature generates, one year of the deadline, also little vision. It is as if the "no" to the European referendum had shrunk and confined the country within its borders. If the international situation tends and this weakness is not corrected, it risks becoming a true disability and to leave the field open to other more expert profiles. Those of Lionel Jospin, Laurent Fabius or Dominique de Villepin, even if the odds to compete in the Prime Minister appear very low.

Finally, if the two favourites of surveys rely on springs which are close, their situation is not strictly identical. Nicolas Sarkozy has started the presidential battle very early, in 2002, and he has already won several sleeves: it controls the UMP, he dominated its rivals, it has a well structured core of voters. It was likely to move to virtual candidate than short candidate. Ségolène Royal is not there: it is prancing leading in the polls and raking, it has an internal battle. Its competitors within the party are both numerous and seasoned: Laurent Fabius, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Lionel Jospin, to talk about the most serious, not to mention Bernard Kouchner, Jack Lang, Martine Aubry and even François Hollande, with its double-hatted companion and first Secretary, is not the easiest role. Initially, all have been paralysed by the soaring Royal but is now the family of Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss-Kahn sharpening their weapons on the air of: "substantive steps"..., "too right"..., "too media", too "snow white and the seven dwarfs". The confrontation is scheduled for next November. For the chance to leave alive, Ségolène Royal will have to beat them on their own land: one of the ideas. It raised expectations because it appeared like the one that could reconcile the socialism and modernity. Rest to the content.