And this movement is expected to continue

October 19, 2011 12:00 AM
And this movement is expected to continue

The mid-term elections will be held today in the United States, what is your prognosis

I am only one elector among others. But I think that this will be much tighter than expected. The Tea Party movement will have finally clamped the momentum of the Republican party. But, basically, whatever the outcome, it will not change not the agenda of President Obama. He WINS or loses the elections, his main objective remains, as for its European counterparts, to reduce the unemployment rate.

The current economic situation you are concerned about it

I am not part of the pessimists. I believe that we are witnessing a slow but real economic improvement. The efforts made since the beginning of the crisis to produce results. But the Americans are too impatient. A crisis of the credit of such magnitude cannot be resolved in two years. It takes at least three to four years to achieve. In fact, I believe that the main risk that threatens us now is not that a relapse, but a reboot faster than expected, the activity. Such a scenario would cause damage among investors, most of which are surinvestis in bonds and very reluctant to buy shares.

In the United States, however, the lack of dynamism of the resumption concerned many people...

New York and California, this is true. But if you speak with a Kansas farmer, he will tell you that it is experiencing a record year. More generally, the US economy is convalescent and the rate of unemployment in the United States is at an unacceptable level. But I think that things could quickly improve. American companies have never had as much of cash. More than 2,000 billion. Therefore, it would be sufficient that they move to that activity reparte. But this would break with pessimism, which feeds to the disconnect between the Obama administration and the world of business. I hope that the White House will quickly attract an ex-leader business very known to bridge the gap. In the future, should of course that the United States clean their public finances by taking drastic measures as Britain comes to for example, but the priority today is reducing the rate of unemployment.

Do you think that the new non-conventional measures that prepares to take the Fed will help restart activity

I am very measured on the subject. What is Ben Bernanke, in my view, is boosting the value of the shares. If interest rates fall UI ' is what should happen with the EQ 2 ("quantitative easing 2")-Government bonds will reach prohibitive prices and investors will look to the actions. I note also that the U.S. stock markets are mounted by 12 since the announcement of these measures in September. And this movement is expected to continue. This will cause a significant wealth effect, which will benefit all Americans.

Fear a currency war

I think not. What is certain, is that the euro is not competitive to 1.40 and the European economy suffers. But it should not focus on the short term. Less than six months ago, the euro was worth less than 1.20. On the yuan, the refusal of China to revalue its currency is linked to the central role of the level of exports in the health of the economy of the country. China's leaders know that they must find jobs for hundreds of millions of people. Therefore, they do not want to degrade the competitiveness of the country. As some of its neighbours such as the Viet Nam or the Indonesia are formidable competitors. It will be good however they adapt in a global rebalancing. It is also their interest that Western economies are better, that they recover their unemployed to work. Because they will become consumers who buy Chinese.

As an investor, Subscribe to the idea that a bubble is formed in China

Absolutely not. I regret moreover that foreign investment is to be so strictly supervised. Obviously, there are pockets of overvaluation on certain assets such as real estate for example, but with a growth of 8 to 9 per year, there is nothing that China cannot absorb. In fact, the biggest risk for China's economy today would be an increase in wages. It would be destructive. Especially since many companies are not yet profitable.

Do you consider that the financial reform has fired all the lessons of the crisis

I think that we went too far in some areas, including the regulation of the own funds, and not far enough on other points. In the end, I note that, to reduce the risk that showed banks for the rest of the economy, has been strongly reduced recipient capacity while requesting additional own funds. This will have two effects in my opinion. First, the

most of the banks will have to turn to the markets to meet their new obligations of solvency. Then, to restore its profitability, the banking sector as a whole will increase its rates. This means in fact that the measures announced since the crisis will have a social cost and that it will be high. I'm not sure that everyone is well aware.

Management companies benefiting from the weakening of the banks

Of course. We do not have their constraints. We are not concerned with Volcker rule, which requires the separation of the activities of Bank and operations for own account. We have no negotiation for own-account activity. Our economic model is simple: 100 of our revenues come from the operations carried out on behalf of our clients. Moreover, we are very comfortable with the credit crisis and market conditions. We buy and sell securities. We provide the liquidity in the markets. Our priority is to make economies of scale, reduce our costs and to benefit our customers. This is why we developed our own trading platform. However, we remain vigilant in a changing environment. We are on the lookout for regulatory developments.

Do you have the best model to manage more than 3,500 billion $

I think that the job of Manager of assets has changed. For our part, we are not attached to distribution platforms. In Britain and the United States, distribution is separated from the production, which is not the case in France. Therefore, we approach each country according to its characteristics. We operate in 32 countries. As such, we are the largest independent player in the world. The question of whether 3,500 billion is too large, we do not believe and our stocks should continue to increase. We occupy more land abandoned by the banks on the capital markets. We recommended the introductions on the stock market in Hong Kong and Singapore, and bond issues in Europe. The opportunities are many. Our role is strengthened. The operations are less in dollars, but more rupees in India, in real to the Brazil... Capital flows swell. 70 billion of us mutual funds are invested in the Japan. 40 billion of the debt of the Japan are held in the Brazil. It is exceptional! We are a global Manager, with comprehensive information and controlling international flows.

Within two years, we set to develop the BlackRock brand around the world, in France, where it is not yet well known. We will work so quickly. We promote also the mark iShares. To do this, we rely on our local teams, as in each country. Beyond our capital management, our skills are also recognized in risk management. We recently accompanied this area two major banking groups in France.

It is said that you are interested in Man Group

I can swear you: we never, never watched the Man Group folder, even if we love the company. We are investors.

What are your relations with your shareholder, Bank of America, after your complaint against him on the management of the MBS ("mortgage-backed securities")

They are very good. Its Director General sits on our Board of Directors. It must be remembered that we have a single trade: manage the assets of our clients and therefore protect. Bank of America has failed in its task on the "mortgage-backed securities." If there is no complaint, we are not our role. Would have said our competitors We are many in this procedure. Western Management, Pimco, Fed of New York, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac also complained.

Goldman Sachs recently degraded BlackRock, particularly because of the risk facing the market share of iShares on the ETF. Do you agree

We welcome the competition. And we are very proud of the market share of iShares. We are never expected to be 45. This makes us the number one undisputed market. When a competitor, our market share reduced very slightly, like the other competitors. But, on this market, many players come, all out. Many platforms of ETF lose money. I see not the environment change significantly. In the United States, there are three dominant players. Two Europe.

In terms of investment would recommend you today to your customers

Today, the obligations are too expensive. They focus the attention of investors. Whereas, the actions are poorly valued asset class. We see here a very important source of opportunities.

The interview is complete on the CBSNews