Nokia coughing and any mobile phones market cold and is likely to be seized by the crisis (see below). Bad news of course for manufacturers. In particular for two builders already in the red, Sony Ericsson and Motorola. As new entrants who engage today like Google that has integrated its software in the Taiwanese HTC phones, they may not have chosen the best time to attack the market... "It's the season of holiday of the year which will give the"the"for the year 2009", estimated in a mobile operator. Carolina Milanesi, analyst firm Gartner, table, she, a decline of the world market of the order of 1 to 2 in volume next year, far known since 2002 two-digit growth rates. And, with the decline in the prices of mobile, the fall in market value should be larger.
"We are in a market in full disruption", says the analyst based in London. "The pressure on prices and margins will widen and manufacturers will need to adapt both to the level of their cost and at the level of their portfolio of products," it provides. While "there will be always a demand for phones very high", as the iPhone. That confirmed figures from GfK, at least for the France. According to the Institute, it should be sold 2.8 million smart phones ("smartphones") in France in 2009, or 1 million more than in 2008. But "the segment under pressure is that of phones that are sold by manufacturers to the operators between 100 euros to 300 euros", i.e. the mid range, said Carolina Milanesi. It must be remembered that, in many developed countries, the phones are sold with a package and are heavily subsidized by mobile operators. When Nokia sells Orange a 3 G phone to 200 euros, it is found in 69 euros in the stores of the operator.
"Consumers always regard as a necessity to have a mobile phone." "Simply, they are less eager to replace their terminal when they have a", explains the expert. In France, Myriam Semdani, GfK Institute, table on a fall in sales of conventional mobile, 22.5 million units in 2008 to 22.4 million next year. These are especially the developed countries that are affected by the downturn. Emerging countries, although GDP growth slows, should know their sales deceleration, but not a drop. Hence the required good relative expected phones "low cost" market destined for developing economies.
But in developed countries, mobile operators may sell a little less of new services, type Internet mobile, e-mail, video or television. In Spain, for example, the turnover of Telefonica in the mobile declined by 2.1 in the third quarter. Operators could then opt for a strategy for the defence of their margins... by deliberately deciding to less to subsidize some phones. Mobile in-store prices may increase. A great surprise consumers accustomed to not spend more than 60 euros for a midrange phone. Result, the manufacturers of mobile, which previously relied on the volumes to the margin, may sell less mobile, with a disastrous effect on their accounts of result.